Independent Research Initiative · FeederLens LLC (WA)

Modeling Continental
Grid Vulnerabilities

FeederLens LLC is the legal home of one independent research project: measuring stress on the North American power grid from public telemetry, and compressing it into derived indices that can be discussed openly — without redistributing anyone's raw data.

View Research Methodology ↓

// 01 — Research Protocol

The FeederLens Grid Stress Index™ (FGSI) Protocol

The core of the current work is a one-way abstraction. Raw grid constraints pass through a 30-day rolling Z-score, then a sigmoid squash onto a 0–100 scale. The proprietary baseline never leaves the pipeline, so the published number cannot be inverted back to the source series — that is the whole point.

fgsi_research_output.json

// Research output sample — 2026-07-17 (semantic buckets only; node-level identifiers are stripped by design)
{
  "model_iteration": "v1.0-research",
  "region": "FRCC",
  "fgsi": 82,
  "band": "AMBER",
  "structural_observation": "Elevated local scarcity detected during solar ramp-down."
}

// 02 — Research Log

Selected Methodology Notes

Dated notes on model iterations and data-treatment methods. All work uses public or synthetic data (EIA-930, ISO public filings, LBNL, NREL/Pecan Street). No proprietary or third-party operational data.

2026-07-17 Structural Lag Refinement. Cut the attribution window from 30 days to 6. Most of the sector reaction worth measuring happens inside a week; the longer window was mostly noise.attribution-window

2026-07-15 Regression Net Preservation. Decided against pruning tests that always pass. A regression net earns its keep precisely by never firing — and the 1,300+ case suite runs in under 15 seconds, so there was nothing to save anyway.ci-cd-philosophy

2026-07-09 Dormant Module Retention. Kept the hurricane, nuclear-outage and carbon-registry monitors armed despite months of zero triggers. A fuse isn't removed just because there is no fire.tail-risk-safeguards

2026-07-04 Deterministic-First Ingestion. Where an official machine-readable file exists, parse it; save language models for sources that have no structured feed. Interconnection-queue workbooks now come in as plain xlsx/csv, deterministically.data-lake-optimization

// 03 — System Architecture

Research Pipeline

A heterogeneous, deterministic-first pipeline: public telemetry in, derived structural heuristics out. Every figure is traceable to a public source.

Deterministic Telemetry Ingestion (Python)

Interconnection-queue workbooks, EIA-930 hourly telemetry and public LMP archives, parsed deterministically. Regions are isolated: one dark feed never poisons the continental picture.

Merit-Order Dispatch Modeling (Python)

Merit-order dispatch models in Python. Fuel cost plus carbon shadow price reorders the stack; a weighted multiplier ties regional slack back to fundamental priors.

Regression & CI/CD Governance

Every change runs the full 1,300+ case regression suite before it lands — under 15 seconds. If a test fails, nothing ships.

Fail-Safe Insurance Modules

Dormant watchdogs — hurricane demand shield, nuclear-outage monitor, carbon registry — stay armed through long quiet stretches, and degradation is always regional: the run finishes even when a source does not.

Modeling ContinentalGrid Vulnerabilities